Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -250 UCF +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -4.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -4.4 (-0.4) | 147.7 (-1.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -3.2 (+0.8) | 146.6 (-0.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -4.1 (-0.1) | 148.4 (-2.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -4.5 (-0.5) | 147.4 (-1.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#33) | 10.5 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#29) | 2.52 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#32) | 3.16 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#36) | 0.578 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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