Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -425 ARK +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +21 | 197 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -7.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -11.2 (+9.8) | 163.3 (+33.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ARIZ -10.5 (+10.5) | 165.9 (+31.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ARIZ -11.8 (+9.2) | 161.6 (+35.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -9.8 (+11.2) | 161.9 (+35.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-1 |
| Away | 9-1 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 26.7 (#3) | 19.4 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.31 (#1) | 3.42 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.52 (#2) | 4.25 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#3) | 0.647 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 43.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.