Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -10000 PENN +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +35 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -22.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -15.6 (+19.4) | 148.3 (+26.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -18.4 (+16.6) | 151.6 (+23.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -17.8 (+17.2) | 147.7 (+27.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -17.7 (+17.3) | 149.5 (+25.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 23.1 (#6) | 0.7 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#17) | 0.38 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.42 (#11) | 0.50 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#17) | 0.542 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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