Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -700 MCN +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -11.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -8.4 (+1.6) | 146.8 (-0.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -8.0 (+2.0) | 146.8 (-0.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -8.5 (+1.5) | 148.0 (-2.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -7.9 (+2.1) | 148.8 (-2.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 19-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-0 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#11) | 8.9 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#18) | 1.75 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#13) | 2.12 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#20) | 0.597 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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