Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -900 HPU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +6 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -11.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -10.3 (-4.3) | 166.3 (+15.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -11.8 (-5.8) | 166.5 (+15.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -10.0 (-4.0) | 165.7 (+16.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -11.4 (-5.4) | 167.9 (+14.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-1 |
| Home | 17-1 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#15) | 8.2 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#13) | 1.35 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#14) | 1.17 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#4) | 0.564 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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