Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -1050 HAW +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +19 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -14.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -12.6 (+6.4) | 156.3 (+18.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -12.6 (+6.4) | 160.0 (+15.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -11.9 (+7.1) | 157.9 (+17.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -12.1 (+6.9) | 156.7 (+18.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#14) | 4.5 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#14) | 0.83 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#14) | 0.76 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#4) | 0.517 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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