Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -8000 TNST +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +34 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -25.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -24.9 (+9.1) | 143.7 (+38.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ISU -24.4 (+9.6) | 144.4 (+37.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ISU -22.8 (+11.2) | 145.7 (+36.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -24.7 (+9.3) | 142.6 (+39.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#5) | -1.4 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.68 (#8) | 0.19 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#10) | -0.12 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#22) | 0.541 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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