I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
(1) Arizona Wildcats
78 66
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Utah State Aggies
Viejas Arena (Neutral) · March 23, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ARIZ -11.5 Home covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money ARIZ -800 / USU +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARIZ win
Actual ARIZ +12 144 Won
Massey ARIZ -11.1 (+0.9)
Massey Totals 155.1 (-11.1)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML ARIZ -11.0 (+1.0) 150.5 (-6.5) 85%
Model 4 ML ARIZ -10.8 (+1.2) 154.6 (-10.6) 84%
Model 3 ML ARIZ -12.7 (-0.7) 149.6 (-5.6) 86%
Baseline ML ARIZ -10.8 (+1.2) 151.4 (-7.4) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARIZ USU
Overall 36-3 29-7
Conference 16-2 15-5
Home 16-1 14-1
Away 9-1 7-5
Neutral 11-1 8-1
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 86.2 81.4
Avg Pts Against 69.4 71.2
Massey 26.7 (#3) 15.6 (#30)
Bradley-Terry 5.30 (#1) 2.69 (#28)
W. Bradley-Terry 6.54 (#2) 3.09 (#37)
RPI 0.669 (#3) 0.623 (#15)
Shooting & Four Factors ARIZ USU
FG% 50.3% 49.6%
3PT% 36.3% 34.6%
REB / G 42.8 34.3
OREB / G 12.9 10.9
AST / TO 1.57 1.64
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.1% 56.6%
TOV% 15.2% 15.4%
ORB% 38.3% 33.2%
FT Rate 31.6% 28.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.8% 49.8%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 20.3%
DRB% 73.2% 68.0%
Opp FT Rate 19.5% 27.9%

Game Analysis

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