Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -800 USU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -11.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -11.0 (+1.0) | 150.5 (-6.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ARIZ -10.8 (+1.2) | 154.6 (-10.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ARIZ -12.7 (-0.7) | 149.6 (-5.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -10.8 (+1.2) | 151.4 (-7.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 9-1 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 26.7 (#3) | 15.6 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.30 (#1) | 2.69 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.54 (#2) | 3.09 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.669 (#3) | 0.623 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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