Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -20000 SIE +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -30.2 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -17.6 (-11.6) | 133.4 (+2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -19.4 (-13.4) | 131.7 (+4.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -21.4 (-15.4) | 131.1 (+4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -21.7 (-15.7) | 133.8 (+2.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-1 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 28.5 (#2) | -1.7 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.15 (#2) | -0.05 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.73 (#1) | -0.19 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#1) | 0.511 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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