Really don't mind if you sit this one out. "Thick as a Brick" - Jethro Tull
(3) Virginia Cavaliers
82 73
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Wright State Raiders
Xfinity Mobile Arena (Neutral) · March 20, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UVA -17.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money UVA -2400 / WRST +1200
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVA win
Actual UVA +9 155 Won
Massey UVA -17.3 (-8.3)
Massey Totals 146.7 (+8.3)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML UVA -17.5 (-8.5) 147.9 (+7.1) 89%
Model 4 ML UVA -15.4 (-6.4) 147.5 (+7.5) 89%
Model 3 ML UVA -17.3 (-8.3) 146.2 (+8.8) 89%
Baseline ML UVA -17.9 (-8.9) 146.9 (+8.1) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVA WRST
Overall 30-6 23-12
Conference 15-3 15-5
Home 16-1 11-5
Away 8-2 9-5
Neutral 6-3 3-2
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.4 79.8
Avg Pts Against 68.8 75.6
Massey 18.8 (#18) 1.4 (#143)
Bradley-Terry 3.66 (#9) 0.41 (#124)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.53 (#8) 0.38 (#131)
RPI 0.616 (#20) 0.536 (#93)
Shooting & Four Factors UVA WRST
FG% 46.3% 48.3%
3PT% 35.9% 36.1%
REB / G 40.2 34.8
OREB / G 13.2 11.0
AST / TO 1.53 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.6% 54.4%
TOV% 16.0% 16.3%
ORB% 37.9% 33.2%
FT Rate 24.0% 28.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.3% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 16.5%
DRB% 70.8% 70.8%
Opp FT Rate 25.0% 24.8%

Game Analysis

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