Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -2400 WRST +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -17.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -14.9 (-5.9) | 145.9 (+9.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -12.8 (-3.8) | 146.7 (+8.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -14.4 (-5.4) | 145.6 (+9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -14.5 (-5.5) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#18) | 1.4 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#9) | 0.41 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.53 (#8) | 0.38 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#20) | 0.536 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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