Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NEB -1000 TROY +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +29 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -17.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -14.0 (+15.0) | 138.1 (-15.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -11.8 (+17.2) | 141.7 (-18.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -13.4 (+15.6) | 138.7 (-15.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -13.7 (+15.3) | 136.8 (-13.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#20) | 1.0 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#12) | 0.58 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#15) | 0.30 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#22) | 0.552 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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