Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
(2) Houston Cougars
78 47
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(15) Idaho Vandals
Paycom Center (Neutral) · March 20, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread HOU -24.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money HOU -8000 / IDHO +2200
Model Predictions
Spread Total HOU win
Actual HOU +31 125 Won
Massey HOU -21.7 (+9.3)
Massey Totals 134.6 (-9.6)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML HOU -20.2 (+10.8) 135.0 (-10.0) 90%
Model 4 ML HOU -20.8 (+10.2) 134.5 (-9.5) 90%
Model 3 ML HOU -19.9 (+11.1) 133.2 (-8.2) 90%
Baseline ML HOU -21.2 (+9.8) 134.1 (-9.1) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HOU IDHO
Overall 30-7 21-15
Conference 14-4 9-9
Home 15-1 9-4
Away 6-3 7-9
Neutral 9-3 5-2
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.9 75.8
Avg Pts Against 62.3 74.1
Massey 22.9 (#7) 1.2 (#147)
Bradley-Terry 3.97 (#4) -0.17 (#185)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.98 (#4) -0.12 (#174)
RPI 0.627 (#9) 0.490 (#199)
Shooting & Four Factors HOU IDHO
FG% 45.0% 43.8%
3PT% 34.9% 34.5%
REB / G 36.6 36.4
OREB / G 12.8 10.4
AST / TO 1.73 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 51.9%
TOV% 13.0% 15.1%
ORB% 35.9% 28.9%
FT Rate 20.8% 25.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.6% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 15.1%
DRB% 69.1% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 27.3% 29.2%

Game Analysis

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