Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -8000 IDHO +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +31 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -21.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -20.2 (+10.8) | 135.0 (-10.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HOU -20.8 (+10.2) | 134.5 (-9.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | HOU -19.9 (+11.1) | 133.2 (-8.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -21.2 (+9.8) | 134.1 (-9.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-3 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 22.9 (#7) | 1.2 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#4) | -0.17 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.98 (#4) | -0.12 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#9) | 0.490 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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