Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -105 TENN -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -0.9 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.3 (-7.3) | 138.2 (+12.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -0.4 (-6.6) | 138.8 (+12.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -0.0 (-7.0) | 139.9 (+11.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -0.1 (-6.9) | 140.5 (+10.5) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2024 | TENN 64 – 42 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#20) | 19.5 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#8) | 2.91 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.58 (#8) | 3.91 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#18) | 0.589 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 15.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 45.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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