You have to let that raga drop. "Rock the Casbah" - The Clash
(3) Virginia Cavaliers
72 79
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(6) Tennessee Volunteers
Xfinity Mobile Arena (Neutral) · March 22, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread TENN -1.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money UVA -105 / TENN -115
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVA win
Actual TENN +7 151 Lost
Massey TENN -0.9 (-6.1)
Massey Totals 139.5 (+11.5)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 66%
Baseline Plus ML UVA -1.6 (-8.6) 140.1 (+10.9) 58%
Model 4 ML UVA -1.1 (-8.1) 138.9 (+12.1) 57%
Model 3 ML UVA -1.7 (-8.7) 137.7 (+13.3) 60%
Baseline ML UVA -1.1 (-8.1) 139.8 (+11.2) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 22, 2024 TENN 6442 UVA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVA TENN
Overall 30-6 25-12
Conference 15-3 11-7
Home 16-1 14-3
Away 8-2 5-5
Neutral 6-3 6-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.4 78.8
Avg Pts Against 68.8 69.6
Massey 18.6 (#20) 19.5 (#16)
Bradley-Terry 3.71 (#8) 2.91 (#21)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.58 (#8) 3.91 (#19)
RPI 0.619 (#18) 0.589 (#32)
Shooting & Four Factors UVA TENN
FG% 46.4% 46.4%
3PT% 36.3% 33.8%
REB / G 40.2 42.6
OREB / G 13.1 15.9
AST / TO 1.51 1.44
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.9% 51.8%
TOV% 16.2% 17.4%
ORB% 37.9% 45.1%
FT Rate 24.0% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.5% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 16.4%
DRB% 71.0% 72.3%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 25.3%

Game Analysis

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