Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -625 IOWA +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -9.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -9.5 (-10.5) | 139.9 (+5.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -11.3 (-12.3) | 141.9 (+3.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -9.9 (-10.9) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -7.7 (-8.7) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 25.5 (#4) | 16.4 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#6) | 2.37 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.91 (#5) | 3.19 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#7) | 0.565 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 45.7 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 16.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 43.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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