I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
(1) Florida Gators
72 73
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Iowa Hawkeyes
Benchmark International Arena (Neutral) · March 22, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread FLA -10.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money FLA -625 / IOWA +455
Model Predictions
Spread Total FLA win
Actual IOWA +1 145 Lost
Massey FLA -9.1 (-10.1)
Massey Totals 144.3 (+0.7)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 85%
Efficiency Plus ML FLA -9.5 (-10.5) 139.9 (+5.1) 82%
Baseline Tuned ML FLA -11.3 (-12.3) 141.9 (+3.1) 85%
Baseline ML FLA -9.9 (-10.9) 143.1 (+1.9) 82%
Baseline Plus ML FLA -7.7 (-8.7) 141.6 (+3.4) 82%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FLA IOWA
Overall 27-8 24-13
Conference 16-2 10-10
Home 14-1 15-3
Away 8-2 3-8
Neutral 5-5 6-2
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 87.1 74.5
Avg Pts Against 71.5 66.3
Massey 25.5 (#4) 16.4 (#25)
Bradley-Terry 3.75 (#6) 2.37 (#41)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.91 (#5) 3.19 (#33)
RPI 0.633 (#7) 0.565 (#57)
Shooting & Four Factors FLA IOWA
FG% 48.3% 48.8%
3PT% 31.2% 35.5%
REB / G 45.7 29.7
OREB / G 16.1 9.0
AST / TO 1.44 1.56
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.1% 56.3%
TOV% 16.4% 15.2%
ORB% 43.5% 30.6%
FT Rate 27.5% 27.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.9% 52.6%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 20.6%
DRB% 75.4% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 24.7% 28.2%

Game Analysis

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