Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -118 TTU -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +25 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -0.5 (+24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -0.3 (+25.3) | 164.1 (-9.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -0.1 (+24.9) | 171.8 (-16.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.0 (+25.0) | 163.1 (-8.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -0.8 (+25.8) | 160.3 (-5.3) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#14) | 19.1 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#18) | 3.27 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#17) | 3.89 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#7) | 0.624 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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