Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -380 MIA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -6.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.8 (+4.2) | 146.9 (+1.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.0 (+2.0) | 143.1 (+4.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.4 (+4.6) | 146.1 (+1.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -6.2 (+3.8) | 147.4 (+0.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2020 | MIA 58 – 54 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 22.5 (#8) | 15.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#10) | 2.81 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#7) | 3.58 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#17) | 0.573 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.24 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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