Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | MIA +135 PUR -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +4 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -1.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-36.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MIA -1.8 (+2.2) | 144.4 (-32.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.6 (+2.4) | 143.5 (-31.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.4 (+2.6) | 141.5 (-29.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 22, 2026 | PUR 79 – 69 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 13-6 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-1 |
| Away | 1-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#100) | 8.0 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#98) | 1.30 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#96) | 2.57 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#176) | 0.550 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 43.6% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 83.0% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 6.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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