Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -100000 LIU +5000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +34 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -29.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -27.9 (+6.1) | 145.8 (+4.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ARIZ -24.0 (+10.0) | 150.1 (-0.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ARIZ -22.2 (+11.8) | 143.3 (+6.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -29.8 (+4.2) | 144.7 (+5.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 9-1 | 10-9 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 26.4 (#3) | -2.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.28 (#1) | -0.11 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.51 (#2) | -0.25 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#3) | 0.522 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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