Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -8000 QUC +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +33 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -23.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -25.7 (+7.3) | 154.8 (+20.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PUR -23.8 (+9.2) | 156.3 (+18.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | PUR -24.1 (+8.9) | 157.0 (+18.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -24.7 (+8.3) | 157.0 (+18.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 22.1 (#9) | -1.8 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#10) | -0.01 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.53 (#9) | -0.17 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#16) | 0.526 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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