Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -4000 FUR +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -21.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -16.6 (-5.6) | 132.5 (+20.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -21.8 (-10.8) | 134.1 (+18.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -21.7 (-10.7) | 134.2 (+18.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -21.3 (-10.3) | 134.8 (+18.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#13) | -1.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#5) | -0.14 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#7) | -0.24 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#5) | 0.521 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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