Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UK -170 SCU +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | UK -2.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -1.5 (+3.5) | 152.4 (+20.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UK -2.3 (+2.7) | 151.0 (+22.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UK -2.7 (+2.3) | 153.3 (+19.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -2.9 (+2.1) | 152.8 (+20.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#24) | 14.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#31) | 2.33 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#29) | 3.09 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#40) | 0.590 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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