Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -298 SJU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -8.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -7.5 (-2.5) | 137.2 (+17.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -6.7 (-1.7) | 138.7 (+16.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.7 (-3.7) | 137.7 (+17.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -6.7 (-1.7) | 136.3 (+18.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-0 | 18-2 |
| Away | 10-1 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 27.9 (#2) | 19.5 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.14 (#2) | 3.46 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.73 (#1) | 4.21 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#2) | 0.630 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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