Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -650 HOF +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +20 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -13.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -9.0 (+11.0) | 157.4 (+2.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.6 (+8.4) | 168.3 (-8.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -10.5 (+9.5) | 157.3 (+2.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -9.4 (+10.6) | 156.4 (+3.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#15) | 6.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#19) | 0.90 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#17) | 1.18 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#8) | 0.565 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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