Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -270 AKR +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +20 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -8.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -6.5 (+13.5) | 151.8 (+10.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -7.1 (+12.9) | 152.7 (+9.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -6.7 (+13.3) | 150.9 (+11.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -6.6 (+13.4) | 149.7 (+12.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-1 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#20) | 9.8 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#18) | 1.91 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#19) | 2.08 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#15) | 0.594 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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