Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NEB +114 VAN -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -1.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -1.6 (+3.6) | 143.2 (+2.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -1.3 (+3.3) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -1.5 (+3.5) | 143.8 (+2.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -2.0 (+4.0) | 143.9 (+2.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#19) | 20.2 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#12) | 3.32 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#15) | 4.43 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#22) | 0.622 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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