Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -285 CONN +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -9.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -7.1 (-1.1) | 143.3 (-11.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -5.0 (+1.0) | 145.2 (-13.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -6.7 (-0.7) | 142.6 (-10.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -5.9 (+0.1) | 142.2 (-10.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 11-0 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 12-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 30.0 (#1) | 20.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.21 (#2) | 4.38 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.63 (#2) | 5.14 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.689 (#1) | 0.658 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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