Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
(7) Saint Mary's Gaels
50 63
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) Texas A&M Aggies
Paycom Center (Neutral) · March 19, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SMC -2.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money SMC -148 / TA&M +124
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMC win
Actual TA&M +13 113 Lost
Massey SMC -1.6 (-14.6)
Massey Totals 154.1 (-41.1)
Bradley-Terry 64%
Weighted B-T 69%
Baseline Plus ML SMC -5.1 (-18.1) 150.9 (-37.9) 68%
Model 4 ML SMC -5.0 (-18.0) 151.3 (-38.3) 72%
Model 3 ML SMC -5.5 (-18.5) 148.4 (-35.4) 68%
Baseline ML SMC -5.5 (-18.5) 148.3 (-35.3) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMC TA&M
Overall 27-6 22-12
Conference 16-2 11-7
Home 17-0 14-4
Away 8-2 6-5
Neutral 2-4 2-3
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.8 86.1
Avg Pts Against 65.2 78.9
Massey 15.8 (#30) 14.2 (#37)
Bradley-Terry 2.80 (#24) 2.24 (#40)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.71 (#21) 2.89 (#40)
RPI 0.623 (#13) 0.552 (#66)
Shooting & Four Factors SMC TA&M
FG% 46.0% 45.8%
3PT% 38.6% 36.2%
REB / G 40.1 37.7
OREB / G 12.3 12.2
AST / TO 1.41 1.67
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 54.2%
TOV% 16.5% 14.5%
ORB% 37.6% 32.3%
FT Rate 29.1% 27.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.7% 50.8%
Opp TOV% 15.1% 18.4%
DRB% 76.2% 67.5%
Opp FT Rate 18.6% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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