Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -148 TA&M +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +13 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -1.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-41.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.4 (-16.4) | 150.2 (-37.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -2.7 (-15.7) | 151.4 (-38.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -3.8 (-16.8) | 150.8 (-37.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -3.4 (-16.4) | 150.1 (-37.1) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 86.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#30) | 14.2 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#24) | 2.24 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#21) | 2.89 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#13) | 0.552 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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