Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -170 USF +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -8.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -6.0 (-2.0) | 156.6 (+5.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -6.9 (-2.9) | 160.6 (+1.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.4 (-2.4) | 157.6 (+4.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -6.1 (-2.1) | 154.3 (+7.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#10) | 12.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#25) | 1.80 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#25) | 2.45 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#31) | 0.594 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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