Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -1650 NDSU +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +25 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -16.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -12.1 (+12.9) | 141.8 (+17.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -12.8 (+12.2) | 140.4 (+18.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -12.4 (+12.6) | 142.1 (+16.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -11.8 (+13.2) | 143.6 (+15.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#12) | 3.8 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#11) | 0.67 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#12) | 0.71 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#9) | 0.542 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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