Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CONN +110 ILL -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -3.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.2 (+10.2) | 137.2 (-4.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ILL -0.6 (+9.6) | 141.5 (-8.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | ILL -1.2 (+10.2) | 137.5 (-4.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.7 (+9.7) | 136.4 (-3.4) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2025 | CONN 74 – 61 ILL |
| Mar 30, 2024 | CONN 77 – 52 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#10) | 24.2 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.30 (#4) | 3.64 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.02 (#4) | 4.84 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.658 (#4) | 0.633 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 11.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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