Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -535 HPU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +1 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | WIS -8.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -10.3 (-11.3) | 159.9 (+5.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | WIS -10.5 (-11.5) | 161.4 (+3.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | WIS -11.0 (-12.0) | 161.1 (+3.9) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -9.6 (-10.6) | 159.9 (+5.1) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-1 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#26) | 7.8 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#22) | 1.06 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#24) | 1.06 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#34) | 0.556 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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