Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -230 UCLA +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -4.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.9 (+12.1) | 136.6 (-6.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.1 (+12.9) | 136.0 (-6.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -3.4 (+12.6) | 136.5 (-6.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -3.8 (+12.2) | 136.8 (-6.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#13) | 15.2 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.90 (#5) | 2.82 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.71 (#7) | 3.45 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#5) | 0.588 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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