Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | OSU -142 TCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | OSU -3.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -2.4 (-4.4) | 144.3 (-14.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -2.2 (-4.2) | 145.9 (-15.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -1.9 (-3.9) | 147.6 (-17.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -2.4 (-4.4) | 144.9 (-14.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#28) | 12.8 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#35) | 2.67 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#30) | 3.43 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#50) | 0.563 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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