Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -750 VCU +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +21 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -11.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -7.5 (+13.5) | 148.7 (-17.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -7.4 (+13.6) | 151.8 (-20.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.4 (+12.6) | 150.3 (-19.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -7.2 (+13.8) | 151.6 (-20.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 23.5 (#7) | 12.4 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#15) | 2.49 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.49 (#11) | 3.08 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#15) | 0.602 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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