I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–14 on winners spread MAE 10.1 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
La Salle @ Duke +22.2 153.3 98% 66–95 ✓
Boston University @ Davidson +9.8 134.0 81% 45–69 ✓
Idaho State @ Campbell -1.8 117.3 43% 69–55 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Ball State +7.4 133.6 75% 58–75 ✓
Army @ UAlbany +13.3 136.1 89% 59–62 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +11.1 141.3 84% 76–72 ✗
UMBC @ Maryland +7.1 137.1 74% 68–92 ✓
Marist @ New Hampshire +6.0 134.8 71% 71–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Monmouth +7.9 147.7 76% 79–88 ✓
UAB @ Middle Tennessee +14.6 135.7 91% 58–57 ✗
Hofstra @ Wright State -8.7 168.2 21% 85–76 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah State -8.4 154.7 22% 49–79 ✗
Long Island University @ Columbia +21.2 150.1 97% 67–77 ✓
Tennessee @ Purdue +3.1 136.6 61% 67–71 ✓
Western Illinois @ Valparaiso +5.4 142.9 69% 66–73 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Auburn +23.0 166.8 98% 54–84 ✓
Texas Southern @ Oral Roberts +24.6 133.0 99% 63–65 ✓
Alcorn State @ TCU +29.0 153.1 100% 74–93 ✓
UC Irvine @ Pepperdine -5.5 150.1 31% 76–60 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico State -8.7 140.2 21% 81–76 ✓
Siena @ Milwaukee +9.5 153.8 81% 59–61 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Minnesota +19.6 167.5 96% 67–86 ✓
Green Bay @ UC Riverside -5.1 116.1 32% 68–74 ✗
Le Moyne @ Cal State Northridge +24.6 153.3 99% 80–70 ✗
Kansas @ Marquette -7.2 169.4 26% 59–73 ✗
New Mexico @ Toledo +7.3 159.9 75% 92–84 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Hawai'i +13.2 146.3 88% 61–70 ✓
Buffalo @ Iona +15.1 147.8 92% 64–89 ✓
Northern Iowa @ North Carolina +4.9 164.1 67% 69–91 ✓
App State @ Murray State -12.5 161.6 13% 67–57 ✓
Chicago State @ Morgan State -5.1 147.1 32% 84–83 ✓
Georgia State @ Little Rock +4.8 162.2 67% 93–90 ✗
Texas State @ Southern Utah +1.4 133.0 55% 67–74 ✓
Colorado State @ Boston College -1.8 151.9 44% 86–74 ✓
Louisiana @ Long Beach State +7.8 149.4 76% 92–82 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Presbyterian +17.9 140.4 95% 79–75 ✗
Harvard @ Colgate -5.2 126.7 32% 76–70 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts +17.1 153.8 94% 60–89 ✓
Tennessee @ Kansas +5.0 147.0 68% 60–69 ✓
Sam Houston @ Grambling -12.2 146.8 13% 86–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ Villanova +0.3 122.6 51% 69–85 ✓
Austin Peay @ Sacramento State -1.2 127.9 46% 74–71 ✓
North Alabama @ UT Martin +9.4 140.6 80% 103–105 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Radford +6.0 141.3 71% 68–79 ✓
Ole Miss @ Temple +13.9 138.9 90% 77–76 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Creighton +20.2 154.0 97% 65–88 ✓
Princeton @ Old Dominion -8.7 142.5 21% 76–56 ✓
McNeese @ Louisiana Tech +3.3 134.0 62% 62–71 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ American University +8.6 151.0 78% 65–68 ✓
Purdue @ Marquette -5.2 158.2 32% 78–75 ✓
The Citadel @ Campbell -0.4 122.4 48% 58–65 ✗
Wright State @ Illinois State +4.3 151.5 65% 74–49 ✗
VMI @ Air Force +11.3 140.8 85% 54–64 ✓
Memphis @ Michigan +0.4 167.4 51% 71–67 ✗
Tarleton State @ Cal State Bakersfield -7.4 148.2 25% 59–40 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Merrimack +10.7 145.1 83% 73–96 ✓
West Virginia @ Virginia +7.6 114.3 75% 54–56 ✓
Southern Illinois @ New Mexico State -12.4 140.3 13% 81–54 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northern Kentucky +2.9 146.7 60% 73–88 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.