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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–12 on winners spread MAE 7.8 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Joseph's @ Kentucky +17.9 144.1 95% 88–96 ✓
Howard @ Bryant +13.1 151.1 88% 61–67 ✓
Delaware State @ NJIT -0.1 143.1 50% 72–81 ✗
Sam Houston @ Troy +12.9 157.9 88% 88–86 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Campbell +7.2 113.2 74% 78–75 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Saint Peter's +6.5 129.2 72% 69–61 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Bucknell +7.4 137.8 75% 56–67 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Bethune-Cookman +16.7 143.3 94% 73–79 ✓
UConn @ Texas -8.9 150.3 21% 81–71 ✓
Buffalo @ Hofstra +14.4 138.0 91% 68–102 ✓
Utah State @ Akron -4.4 144.9 34% 65–62 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Southeast Missouri State +5.0 144.3 67% 68–70 ✓
Colorado @ Richmond +1.3 157.2 55% 64–59 ✗
South Carolina State @ Tulsa +25.7 145.0 99% 70–90 ✓
Oregon @ Florida A&M -11.4 151.5 15% 67–54 ✓
UTSA @ Houston Christian +1.6 167.9 56% 89–87 ✗
Stonehill @ East Texas A&M +20.9 135.6 97% 86–97 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Oklahoma State +1.4 137.8 55% 68–96 ✓
UCF @ Charlotte +1.3 123.0 55% 74–71 ✗
SMU @ West Virginia -5.5 138.0 31% 70–58 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Missouri State +1.2 127.1 54% 69–87 ✓
Green Bay @ Montana State +15.8 125.8 92% 54–53 ✗
Navy @ San Diego +16.4 132.2 93% 59–67 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Santa Clara +25.3 137.0 99% 39–81 ✓
Bradley @ Tulane -1.4 149.8 45% 80–77 ✓
North Dakota @ Pacific +2.6 144.2 59% 73–71 ✗
UCLA @ Marquette +9.8 139.9 81% 69–71 ✓
UTEP @ California -5.0 152.2 33% 75–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ Iona -6.6 151.1 27% 80–76 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Florida International -5.5 154.3 31% 61–60 ✓
Binghamton @ Sacred Heart +6.5 144.9 72% 75–89 ✓
Central Michigan @ Stetson +4.4 137.7 66% 61–71 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Eastern Kentucky -4.0 150.2 36% 76–64 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ App State -6.9 153.0 27% 56–86 ✗
Morgan State @ Radford +12.4 144.0 87% 72–82 ✓
McNeese @ Texas State -10.5 141.1 17% 59–48 ✓
Buffalo @ Louisiana +12.1 149.5 86% 60–68 ✓
Oakland @ Marshall -4.6 146.0 34% 78–71 ✓
Syracuse @ Gonzaga +6.1 156.3 71% 57–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Northeastern +10.6 141.7 83% 76–93 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Chicago State -0.6 130.8 48% 78–77 ✓
Florida State @ Colorado +1.9 163.6 57% 77–71 ✗
Southern Utah @ Louisiana Tech +12.8 155.5 88% 53–67 ✓
North Carolina Central @ The Citadel +5.3 130.5 69% 61–67 ✓
Illinois State @ High Point +3.6 141.8 63% 72–74 ✓
Drake @ Akron +0.6 148.3 52% 79–59 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Illinois -3.3 178.4 38% 82–76 ✓
Kennesaw State @ East Carolina +7.1 176.1 74% 84–85 ✓
Indiana State @ Rice -14.5 163.4 9% 103–88 ✓
UNLV @ Richmond +6.6 143.7 73% 65–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.