Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TROY +125 SHSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +2 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -10.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -4.6 (-6.6) | 148.8 (+25.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.6 (-7.6) | 150.9 (+23.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.6 (-6.6) | 152.7 (+21.3) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#210) | -4.7 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#271) | -0.59 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#263) | -0.30 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.306 (#346) | 0.427 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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