Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TEX +188 CONN -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -8.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.8 (-6.2) | 143.6 (+8.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.6 (-7.4) | 145.1 (+6.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.3 (-7.7) | 147.3 (+4.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.4 (-5.6) | 146.3 (+5.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | CONN 71 – 63 TEX |
| Dec 8, 2024 | CONN 76 – 65 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#69) | 14.4 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#46) | 2.42 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#54) | 3.87 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#59) | 0.630 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 52.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 44.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 46.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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