Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UL -480 BUF +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UL -12.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -10.1 (-2.1) | 144.8 (-16.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -9.0 (-1.0) | 145.7 (-17.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -8.4 (-0.4) | 147.5 (-19.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -9.4 (-1.4) | 150.3 (-22.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-3 | 2-13 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#209) | -14.0 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#257) | -2.86 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#238) | -4.21 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#246) | 0.369 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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