Betting Lines
| Spread | CIT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CIT -120 NCCU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | CIT -4.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIT -1.7 (+4.3) | 129.8 (-1.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -3.6 (+2.4) | 132.5 (-4.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -3.0 (+3.0) | 133.2 (-5.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -2.7 (+3.3) | 130.4 (-2.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2022 | NCCU 81 – 74 CIT |
| Dec 7, 2021 | CIT 80 – 67 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#163) | -4.1 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#206) | -1.37 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#195) | -2.00 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#150) | 0.425 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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