Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -10.0 Push |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -480 MORG +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -13.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -11.1 (-1.1) | 140.0 (+14.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -9.3 (+0.7) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -8.7 (+1.3) | 143.0 (+11.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -9.1 (+0.9) | 142.6 (+11.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#182) | -14.1 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#147) | -1.07 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#149) | -1.72 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#71) | 0.412 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 12.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 62.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 55.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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