Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | HPU +100 ILST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -4.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -1.3 (+0.7) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -1.5 (+0.5) | 140.9 (+5.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -1.2 (+0.8) | 140.7 (+5.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -1.4 (+0.6) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#88) | 0.5 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#187) | 1.66 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#158) | 3.20 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#315) | 0.526 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 41.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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