Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SIU +188 JMU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +6 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -4.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -1.7 (-4.3) | 156.2 (+1.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -2.4 (-3.6) | 156.6 (+1.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -2.5 (-3.5) | 156.8 (+1.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -1.6 (-4.4) | 157.6 (+0.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#103) | 8.4 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#118) | 3.08 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#124) | 4.15 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#127) | 0.705 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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