We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Reynolds Center · November 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TLSA -17.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money TLSA -2500 / SCST +1400
Model Predictions
Spread Total TLSA win
Actual TLSA +20 160 Won
Massey TLSA -25.5 (-5.5) — —
Massey Totals — 145.8 (+14.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ TLSA -16.7 (+3.3) 147.1 (+12.9) 89% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML TLSA -18.5 (+1.5) 143.1 (+16.9) 90% ✓
Baseline ML TLSA -22.8 (-2.8) 142.3 (+17.7) 90% ✓
Baseline Plus ML TLSA -21.7 (-1.7) 144.3 (+15.7) 90% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TLSA SCST
Overall 16-15 14-18
Conference 7-11 9-5
Home 14-4 9-4
Away 2-9 5-13
Neutral 0-2 0-1
Last 5 3-0 1-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.3 69.3
Avg Pts Against 74.5 75.0
Massey 3.4 (#112) -14.3 (#354)
Bradley-Terry 1.63 (#61) -0.96 (#262)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.45 (#61) -1.84 (#278)
RPI 0.537 (#133) 0.394 (#290)
Shooting & Four Factors TLSA SCST
FG% 39.8% 38.7%
3PT% 29.1% 19.1%
REB / G 48.0 40.0
OREB / G 15.0 15.7
AST / TO 0.86 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.1% 41.1%
TOV% 20.3% 20.8%
ORB% 38.1% 37.3%
FT Rate 33.1% 31.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 36.6% 53.1%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 19.3%
DRB% 70.7% 70.2%
Opp FT Rate 18.8% 43.4%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.