Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -2500 SCST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +20 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -25.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -16.7 (+3.3) | 147.1 (+12.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -18.5 (+1.5) | 143.1 (+16.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -22.8 (-2.8) | 142.3 (+17.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -21.7 (-1.7) | 144.3 (+15.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#112) | -14.3 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#61) | -0.96 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#61) | -1.84 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#133) | 0.394 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 19.1% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 15.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 43.4% |
Game Analysis
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