Betting Lines
| Spread | CAM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | CAM -138 NCCU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | CAM -7.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.2 (+40.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAM -1.9 (-4.9) | 128.9 (+24.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAM -3.7 (-6.7) | 124.3 (+28.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAM -4.0 (-7.0) | 128.7 (+24.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAM -1.6 (-4.6) | 124.4 (+28.6) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAM | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#252) | -4.1 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#310) | -1.37 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#326) | -2.00 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.354 (#322) | 0.425 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAM | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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