Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +138 UTEP -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UTEP -5.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -3.3 (+0.3) | 140.5 (+6.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -4.0 (+1.0) | 144.1 (+2.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -3.9 (+0.9) | 146.0 (+1.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -3.3 (+0.3) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#299) | -0.6 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#304) | 0.60 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#301) | 0.58 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.368 (#309) | 0.535 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 54.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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