Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +230 UTSA -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +2 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -0.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -3.6 (+1.6) | 161.6 (+14.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -2.0 (-0.0) | 157.5 (+18.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -1.6 (-0.4) | 157.1 (+18.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -4.4 (+2.4) | 164.7 (+11.3) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2024 | UTSA 78 – 71 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-23 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-8 | 7-9 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L7 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.8 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#350) | -5.6 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.74 (#360) | -0.96 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.27 (#359) | -0.83 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#326) | 0.345 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 16.7% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 19.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 54.9% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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