I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
Sharp Gymnasium · November 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UTSA -5.5 Home covered
O/U 162.5 Over
Money HCU +230 / UTSA -225
Model Predictions
Spread Total HCU win
Actual UTSA +2 176 Lost
Massey UTSA -0.3 (-1.7)
Massey Totals 168.2 (+7.8)
Bradley-Terry 23%
Weighted B-T 3%
Baseline Plus ML UTSA -3.6 (+1.6) 161.6 (+14.4) 34%
Baseline ML UTSA -2.0 (-0.0) 157.5 (+18.5) 35%
Baseline Tuned ML UTSA -1.6 (-0.4) 157.1 (+18.9) 36%
Efficiency Plus ML UTSA -4.4 (+2.4) 164.7 (+11.3) 24%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2024 UTSA 7871 HCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HCU UTSA
Overall 6-23 11-21
Conference 4-14 5-13
Home 5-8 7-9
Away 1-15 4-11
Neutral 0-0 0-1
Last 5 0-2 1-3
Streak L7 L2
Avg Pts For 69.3 77.1
Avg Pts Against 84.8 81.6
Massey -13.8 (#350) -5.6 (#285)
Bradley-Terry -3.74 (#360) -0.96 (#261)
W. Bradley-Terry -6.27 (#359) -0.83 (#224)
RPI 0.351 (#326) 0.345 (#329)
Shooting & Four Factors HCU UTSA
FG% 48.2% 37.6%
3PT% 16.7% 30.4%
REB / G 29.0 41.0
OREB / G 6.5 12.5
AST / TO 0.54 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 43.5%
TOV% 25.6% 13.3%
ORB% 19.1% 27.3%
FT Rate 23.6% 26.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.4% 46.2%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 13.4%
DRB% 54.9% 64.0%
Opp FT Rate 17.6% 35.4%

Game Analysis

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