Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -900 HCU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -10.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -6.1 (+0.9) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -7.7 (-0.7) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -7.1 (-0.1) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -8.5 (-1.5) | 140.5 (+8.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2023 | UTSA 89 – 87 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#301) | -11.8 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#246) | -2.87 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#269) | -3.74 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#280) | 0.408 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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