Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | RICE +260 INST -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +15 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -13.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -9.8 (-5.2) | 154.4 (+36.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -10.4 (-4.6) | 154.8 (+36.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -9.9 (-5.1) | 153.6 (+37.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -9.2 (-5.8) | 153.5 (+37.5) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 6-10 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#251) | 9.8 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#263) | 0.03 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#232) | -0.03 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#134) | 0.563 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 56.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 64.7% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 64.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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