Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | RICH +130 UNLV -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -7.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -4.7 (+12.3) | 140.0 (+7.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -6.4 (+10.6) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -5.7 (+11.3) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -6.0 (+11.0) | 141.3 (+5.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#35) | 0.9 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#152) | -0.70 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#165) | -1.50 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#168) | 0.471 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.35 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 9.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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